Climate Change and Sustainable Engineering and Design Lab
Dept of Civil Engineering and TISED, McGill University
This study reported ultra high resolution application of the limited-area version of the Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM) model over the Canadian Arctic. Results indicate that although some aspects of the seasonal mean values are deteriorated at times, substantial improvements are noted in the ultra high resolution simulation compared to a simulation performed at 12 km resolution. The representation of extreme precipitation events during summer and the simulation of winter temperature are better captured in the 3 km simulation. Moreover, the observed temperature–extreme precipitation scaling is realistically reproduced by the higher resolution simulation. These results advocate for the use of convective-permitting resolution models for simulating future climate projections over the Arctic to support climate impact assessment studies such as those related to engineering applications and where high spatial and temporal resolution are beneficial.
This study projects abrupt decreases in soil moisture in response to permafrost degradation over areas of the present-day permafrost region based on analysis of transient climate change simulations, for RCP8.5 scenario, performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. This regime shift is reflected in abrupt increases in summer near-surface temperature and convective precipitation, and decreases in relative humidity and surface runoff. Of particular relevance to northern systems are increases in the potential for intense rainfall events and increases in lightning frequency. Combined with increases in forest fuel combustibility, these are projected to abruptly and substantially increase the severity of wildfires, which constitute one of the greatest risks to northern ecosystems, communities and infrastructure.
In this study, super-resolution urban climate simulations over Montreal are used to assess the direct impact of the decrease in traffic-related heat emissions due to COVID-19 on urban temperature characteristics. Two simulations, one with normal and the other with reduced traffic, are used to assess the impacts throughout the year. The results show that an 80% reduction in traffic results in an up to 20% reduction in hot hours (when temperature exceeds 30 °C) in the traffic corridors during the warm season, which can be beneficial to pedestrians and bicyclists. As no substantial changes occur outside of traffic corridors, potential reductions in traffic would need to be supplemented by additional measures to reduce urban temperatures and associated heat stress, especially in a warming climate, to ensure human health and well-being.